Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?
Polymarket·Politics·ends Dec 1, 2026
As of 17:39 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, “25-29” leads “Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?” on Polymarket at 49% (+8pp in 24h), followed by “30-34” at 39% (+5pp in 24h) and “35+” at 24% (+1pp in 24h), out of 5 outcomes. The event has $875 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Limitless.
vol cum
$2.7k
vol 24h
$875
outcomes
5
ends
Dec 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
OilIranHormuzHouthisGeopoliticsBab el-MandebStrait of Hormuz
marketselected outcome
25-29
rank #1
49¢
▲ 7.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$280
vol 24h
$125
spread
0.28
ends
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for November 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. This market will resolve based on the whole-number value published by the resolution source for the specified date. Any more granular or unrounded values will not be considered; if the value is presented with decimals in any format, it will be rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5 rounded up.
