How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Apr 1, 2027
As of 00:53 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, “1” leads “How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?” on Polymarket at 50% (+1pp in 24h), followed by “0” at 27% (-1pp in 24h) and “2” at 10% (+1pp in 24h), out of 6 outcomes. The event has $164 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion and Manifold.
vol cum
$1.2M
vol 24h
$164
outcomes
6
ends
Apr 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
Climate & ScienceWeatherNatural Disasters
marketselected outcome
1
rank #1
50¢
▲ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$275.4k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.38
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
