“November 21” 44%, “November 22” 44% and “November 26” 44% (-1pp in 24h) on Polymarket as of 04:19 UTC on 14 Nov 2026: “November 21” leads “Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?” out of 50 outcomes. The event has $6.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Carbon model (4.1+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Carbon" and be designated as version 4.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.1 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 4 Carbon would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 5 Carbon, while models whose name does not include "Carbon" or which retain a version designation below 4.1, such as Gemini 4 Carbon (released November 10, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, snapshot, or reasoning setting of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as image, TTS, or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
