What is the current probability for "OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 41% (-5pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/192788. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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marketsingle market

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

·Science and Technology

41%

▼ 4.8pp

24h change

vol cum

$26.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.28

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 41¢

No 60¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

gptOpenAIAIBig TechGPT-5

timeline

opened · Jan 29, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history