What is the current probability for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?": June 30, 2027 34%, December 31 12%, September 30 6% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/30/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/212877. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

·Politics·ends Jun 30, 2027

vol cum

$3.1M

vol 24h

$13.8k

outcomes

ends

Jun 30, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

PoliticsSupreme Court CourtsAlitoSCOTUS

marketselected outcome

June 30, 2027

rank #1

United States

34¢

▼ 8.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$37.5k

vol 24h

$13.3k

spread

0.02

ends

Jun 30, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

timeline

opened · Jun 30, 2026opencloses · Jun 30, 2027

June 30, 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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