event10 outcomes

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2028

As of 03:58 UTC on 3 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 10 markets in “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31, 2027” at 38%, “June 30, 2027” at 22% and “March 31, 2027” at 13% (-1pp in 24h). The event has $132 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Opinion and Manifold.

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$8.6M

vol 24h

$132

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ends

Jan 1, 2028

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GeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x IranPeace Deal

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December 31, 2027

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IsraelLebanon

38¢

▼ 0.5pp

24h change

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$66k

vol 24h

$20

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0.02

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Jan 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

timeline

opened · Oct 5, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2028

December 31, 2027 · prices over time

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