event15 outcomes

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 04:38 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 15 markets in “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?” on Polymarket are “Google” at 100%, “Anthropic” at 46% (+7pp in 24h) and “OpenAI” at 14% (+2pp in 24h). The event has $899 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?” on Kalshi, an event with 13 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 19 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion and Manifold.

vol cum

$239.7k

vol 24h

$899

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

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AIBusinessTechRecurring

marketselected outcome

Google

rank #1 · resolved: yes

100¢

vol cum

$46.3k

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

timeline

opened · Apr 30, 2026closedresolved · Oct 1, 2026

Google · prices over time

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