What is the current probability for "Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?": September 30 7%, July 31 0% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/1/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/428627. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event2 outcomes

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?

·Politics·ends Oct 1, 2026

vol cum

$146.2k

vol 24h

$5.8k

outcomes

ends

Oct 1, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

PoliticsnetanyahuIsraelLikudIsrael Election

marketselected outcome

September 30

rank #1

Israel

7¢

▲ 2.6pp

24h change

vol cum

$37.5k

vol 24h

$5.8k

spread

0.01

ends

Oct 1, 2026

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jun 30, 2026opencloses · Oct 1, 2026

September 30 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history