As of 15:13 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 3 markets in “Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 4% (-1pp in 24h), “June 30” at 0% and “May 31” at 0%. The event has $36 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket and Manifold.
vol cum
$828.7k
vol 24h
$36
outcomes
3
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
PoliticsCubaTrumpGeopoliticsDiaz-Canel
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
CubaUnited States
4¢
▼ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$33.8k
vol 24h
$36
spread
0.03
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration.
Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify.
Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
