What is the current probability for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by..."?

Current Polymarket odds for "Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31": December 31 50%, August 30 44%, October 31 41% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event has no fixed resolution date; check the source (polymarket) for resolution rules.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/578438. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

·Science and Technology

vol cum

$4.3k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

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outcomesclick to inspect →

SciencePandemicsScrewwormClimate & Science

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

United States

50¢

▲ 2.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$415

vol 24h

spread

0.69

ends

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

timeline

opened · Jun 10, 2026opencloses

December 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history