What is the current probability for "Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?": Thorsten Frei 54%, Other 50%, [Placeholder 1] 50% (top 3 of 34 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/719096. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event34 outcomes

Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$693

vol 24h

$693

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 34

CDUCSUSpahnCDU/CSUGermanyPoliticsElectionsJens Spahn

marketselected outcome

Thorsten Frei

rank #1

Germany

54¢

▲ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$175

vol 24h

$175

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

timeline

opened · Jul 18, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Thorsten Frei · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history