What is the current probability for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by December 31, 2026?": December 31, 2026 27%, October 31, 2026 15%, September 30, 2026 6% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73223. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event3 outcomes

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

vol cum

$1.6M

vol 24h

$128.3k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

PoliticsGermanyWorld

marketselected outcome

December 31, 2026

rank #1

Germany

27¢

▲ 6.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.5M

vol 24h

$77.9k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

December 31, 2026 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history