What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 16% (-6pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73130. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

·Politics

United StatesIran

16%

▼ 6.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$56.7M

vol 24h

$1M

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 16¢

No 85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Military StrikesPoliticsGeopoliticsWorldMiddle EastIsraelIranTrump

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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