What is the current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?"?

"Yes" is currently 16% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/73130. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

·Politics

United StatesIran

16%

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$67M

vol 24h

$240.3k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2027

Yes 16¢

No 85¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Military StrikesPoliticsGeopoliticsWorldMiddle EastIsraelIranTrump

timeline

opened · Nov 5, 2025opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

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