What is the current probability for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?": 650-700mm 31%, 700mm+ 29%, <425mm 28% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/1/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/763095. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event10 outcomes

Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/1/2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/763095. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·Science and Technology·ends Sep 1, 2026

vol cum

$1.8k

vol 24h

$191

outcomes

ends

Sep 1, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

ScienceWeatherPrecipitation

marketselected outcome

650-700mm

rank #1

Hong Kong

31¢

▲ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$107

vol 24h

spread

0.53

ends

Aug 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

timeline

opened · Jul 28, 2026opencloses · Aug 31, 2026

650-700mm · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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