What is the current probability for "What will Trump say in August?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "What will Trump say in August?": Midterm 83%, Through the Roof 79%, No No No 78% (top 3 of 35 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/765645. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event35 outcomes

What will Trump say in August?

·Politics·ends Aug 31, 2026

vol cum

$133

vol 24h

$133

outcomes

ends

Aug 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 35

TrumpMentionsPolitics

marketselected outcome

Midterm

rank #1

United States

83¢

▲ 40.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$15

vol 24h

$15

spread

0.15

ends

Aug 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

timeline

opened · Jul 28, 2026opencloses · Aug 31, 2026

Midterm · prices over time

−24h

now

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