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How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

“8” 64%, “Greater than 8” 14% (+8pp in 24h) and “7” 10% (-13pp in 24h) on Polymarket as of 18:04 UTC on 12 Nov 2026: “8” leads “How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?” out of 6 outcomes. The event has $20.1k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Jul 1, 2027
event6 outcomes
vol cum
$229.5k
vol 24h
$20.1k
outcomes
6
ends
Jul 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
TyphoonWeatherHurricanesTyphoon DolphinHurricane SeasonNatural Disaster
marketselected outcome
8
rank #1
China
64¢
▼ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$54.4k
vol 24h
$727
spread
0.22
ends
Jul 1, 2027

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

timeline
opened · Aug 5, 2026opencloses · Jul 1, 2027
8 · prices over time
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