What is the current probability for "How low will Lake Mead drop?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "How low will Lake Mead drop?": Below 1,028 ft 77%, Above 1,038 ft 13%, 1,033–1,038 ft 4% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 4/15/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/867669. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

How low will Lake Mead drop?

·Climate and Weather·ends Apr 15, 2027

vol cum

$708

vol 24h

$578

outcomes

ends

Apr 15, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

waterDroughtWeatherUnited StatesClimate & ScienceNatural Disasters

marketselected outcome

Below 1,028 ft

rank #1

United States

77¢

▲ 32.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$499

vol 24h

$459

spread

0.03

ends

Apr 15, 2027

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 1,025 feet is the threshold below which the Lower Colorado River Basin enters its most severe declared shortage tier (Tier 3). Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

timeline

opened · Aug 17, 2026opencloses · Apr 15, 2027

Below 1,028 ft · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history