What is the current probability for "How low will Lake Powell drop?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "How low will Lake Powell drop?": 3,500–3,510 ft 34%, Above 3,510 ft 31%, Below 3,490 ft 28% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 4/15/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/867670. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

How low will Lake Powell drop?

·Climate and Weather·ends Apr 15, 2027

vol cum

$533

vol 24h

$19

outcomes

ends

Apr 15, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

waterDroughtWeatherUnited StatesClimate & ScienceNatural Disasters

marketselected outcome

3,500–3,510 ft

rank #1

United States

34¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$133

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Apr 15, 2027

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,510.00 feet but does not fall below 3,500.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

timeline

opened · Aug 17, 2026opencloses · Apr 15, 2027

3,500–3,510 ft · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history