What is the current probability for "Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?"?

"Yes" is currently 4% (-6pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/872308. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

·Politics

Iran

▼ 6.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$18.9k

vol 24h

$18.9k

spread

0.03

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 4¢

No 96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

IranTrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

timeline

opened · Aug 18, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

similar markets