Will the Citrini scenario happen?
As of 02:01 UTC on 9 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the Citrini scenario happen?” at 18% (-2pp in 24h). The market has $2.7k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
