What is the current probability for "Will the Citrini scenario happen?"?

"Yes" is currently 18% (-5pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/1/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXCITRINI-28JUL01. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

·Elections

United States

18%

▼ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$25.9M

vol 24h

$11k

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 1, 2028

Yes 18¢

No 82¢

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Feb 25, 2026opencloses · Jul 1, 2028

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