marketsingle market
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
United States
23%
▼ 2.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$25.8M
vol 24h
$2.7k
spread
0.04
ends
Jul 1, 2028
Yes 23¢
No 77¢
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
timeline
opened · Feb 25, 2026opencloses · Jul 1, 2028