Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?" from kalshi. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/8/2099.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXELONMARS-99. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Markets

Mars

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

Markets

Mars