What is the current probability for "Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?"?

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?" are Above 3.75% 26% — 4 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/5/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXFED-26JUL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event11 outcomes

Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?

·Economy·ends Aug 5, 2026

vol cum

$2.9M

vol 24h

$55k

outcomes

ends

Aug 5, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

marketselected outcome

Above 2.75%

rank #1

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$127.4k

vol 24h

$10

spread

0.01

ends

Aug 5, 2026

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Jul 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 6, 2025opencloses · Aug 5, 2026

Above 2.75% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history