Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?
As of 03:03 UTC on 8 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?” at 69% (+46pp in 24h). The market has $1.6k in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi and Polymarket.
If, after this market is issued and before 12:00 AM EST on December 31, 2026, the 2026 named storm Isaias has an official National Hurricane Center track segment that intersects with or terminates within the defined Alabama boundary, where both consecutive advisories report sustained winds of at least 74 mph, the advisories are issued no more than 12 hours apart, and both contain latitude/longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree, then the market resolves to Yes.
A track segment is the straight line connecting the storm positions in two consecutive official National Hurricane Center public or forecast advisories. A segment qualifies if any part of that line passes through the defined region, or either coordinate point lies within it. The region is the Alabama feature (STATEFP 01, STUSPS AL) in the US Census Bureau 2025 cartographic boundary state shapefile at 1:500,000 scale: https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2025/shp/cb2025usstate500k.zip . This is a track-intersection test; a coastal landfall in Alabama is not required. The named storm is Isaias in the 2026 season; the cutoff is the stated calendar date, not the end of the usual hurricane season. Unofficial coordinates and post-storm analyses do not establish a qualifying track segment, and revisions after expiration are disregarded. Trading closes December 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST. The latest expiration is January 7, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST; expiration may move earlier after a qualifying occurrence in accordance with Rule 7.2. Settlement is no later than the day after expiration unless the outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. The HURPATH outcome-review and indeterminacy provisions remain applicable.
