Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?

Kalshi·Climate and Weather

As of 01:25 UTC on 7 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?” at 9% (+9pp in 24h). The market has $12 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi and Polymarket.

If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.