What is the current probability for "Will CMS release any deferred Medicaid funds to California or Minnesota?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "Will CMS release any deferred Medicaid funds to California or Minnesota?": Before Jan 1, 2027 94%, Before Sep 1, 2026 8% (top 2 of 2 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/9/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXRESTOREDEFERRAL-26JUL. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event2 outcomes

Will CMS release any deferred Medicaid funds to California or Minnesota?

·Politics·ends Jan 9, 2027

vol cum

$2.6k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 9, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2027

rank #1

United States

94¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$175

vol 24h

spread

0.07

ends

Jan 9, 2027

If the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) or the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announces a definitive decision to lift, in whole or in part, either federal Medicaid payment deferral announced for California or Minnesota on July 21, 2026, or otherwise make any amount covered by either deferral available to the applicable state before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 22, 2026opencloses · Jan 9, 2027

Before Jan 1, 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history