What is the current probability for "Will Trump resign during his term?"?

"Yes" is currently 20% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/21/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXTRUMPRESIGN. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will Trump resign during his term?

polymarket

Will Trump resign before 2027?

yes6¢▲ 2.0pp

$189 24h · 1 market

manifold

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave92¢· 0.0ppTrump leaves office when his term ends76¢· 0.0ppTrump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails54¢· 0.0pp

+4 others

M0 24h · 7 markets

kalshi

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

yes60¢▼ 4.0pp

$3.7k 24h · 1 market

polymarket

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

yes6¢· 0.0pp

$393 24h · 1 market

manifold

How will Trump leave office?

At the end of his term in 2029.78¢· 0.0ppHe will die before the end of his term.11¢· 0.0ppHe will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.6¢· 0.0pp

+6 others

M0 24h · 9 markets

kalshi

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

yes18¢▼ 1.0pp

$972 24h · 1 market

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