What is the current probability for "If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?"?

Current Manifold odds for "If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?": Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave 92%, Trump leaves office when his term ends 76%, Trump attempts something arguably coup-like (e.g. J6), but it fails 54% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/20/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/80eiak0rdx. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event7 outcomes

If elected, will Trump willingly leave power once his term is up?

·Politics·ends Dec 20, 2028

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If Trump loses the 2024 election, or e.g. has a heart attack immediately after winning, "Trump isn't elected or fails to take office" resolves YES and all other options resolve NO. If Trump is still in power in February 2029, even if it's temporary because of an emergency or something like that, "Trump remains in office after his term is up" resolves YES and "Trump leaves office when his term ends" resolves NO. If Trump is replaced by a Republican who he has strong influence over, that still counts as leaving office, unless it's incredibly clear to international observers that it was a total sham election to appoint a puppet. If there's substantial ambiguity around an option, it will resolve to a percentage based on my judgement. Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Conspiracy Theories Do Not Count Claims by conspiracy theorists or groups (e.g. QAnon) that Trump is secretly POTUS will not affect the resolution. De Facto Exercise of Power If Trump continues to act as President (e.g. passing laws) despite being replaced, the resolution may be determined as a percentage based on how much of the government actually treats him as President. A very low percentage of support in these circumstances may be viewed as a failed coup attempt. Broad Definition of Government In cases of civil conflict or alternative governments (e.g. a militia declaring itself the true US government), it will still resolve to a percentage if they are acting as a government in a meaningful way (such as controlling territory). Update 2025-03-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump Death Clarification If Trump dies before the end of his term, the option Trump leaves office when his term ends will resolve as NO.

us-democracy

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Trump publicly suggests, while in office, that he shouldn't have to leave

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United States

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