marketsingle market
Will the US lose measles elimination status in 2026?
United States
85%
▼ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$1k
vol 24h
$250
spread
0.03
ends
Jan 8, 2027
Yes 85¢
No 15¢
If PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
timeline
opened · Jun 15, 2026opencloses · Jan 8, 2027