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Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Kalshi·Climate and Weather
77%
1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$17k
vol 24h
$9
spread
0.05
ends
Jan 8, 2050
Yes 77¢
No 23¢

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

timeline
opened · Jun 5, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2050
Before 2050 · prices over time
−24h
now
volume · 24h windows
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