Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Kalshi·Climate and Weather

As of 22:13 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, Kalshi prices “Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?” at 66%. The market has no Kalshi-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi and Opinion.

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.