marketsingle market
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
80%
▼ 2.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$14.3k
vol 24h
$10
spread
0.02
ends
Jan 8, 2050
Yes 80¢
No 20¢
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.
timeline
opened · Jun 5, 2025opencloses · Jan 8, 2050