Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
We've seen a drastic shift in the US politicalsphere from 2010's to 2020's. How drastic do you think things can go? All baby boomers would have reached retirement age by around 2030. This will resolve in "yes" if the US army is mobilized to deal with domestic terrorism or part of government. Resolves in "no" otherwise. Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: Deployment of the US Army to deal with domestic terrorism or part of the government → Yes Deployment of the National Guard to deal with political unrest or enforce martial law only if they are serving the federal government's dictates → Yes Otherwise → No Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification Definitions: Event Type: The market now only considers a revolution or civil war. Objective: The event must aim at controlling the country, achieving regional independence, or changing government policy. Duration: The event must span at least one month. Casualty Threshold: There must be a minimum of 1000 confirmed deaths by year end.
