Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?
As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?” at 36%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Predict and Kalshi.
Eliezer uses an idiosyncratic phraseology and tends to assume a lot of shared context from his conversation partner. This works fine with other enfranchised rationalists, but makes it difficult for him to be understood when speaking to a general audience. For example, in the Destiny vs. Eliezer debate, Destiny took care to use common words and simple, concise descriptions. Eliezer by contrast would use various terms-of-art and subculture references that many audience members (and even Destiny himself) wouldn't understand, and would give long rambling vague answers that made people think he was dodging the question. If I find a relatively technical discussion of Eliezer's, lasting at least a half hour, where he does a better job of communicating in a way that won't be off-putting to most educated English speakers, I'll resolve this to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO. Given how subjective this is, I won't bet. Other atypical aspects of his communication aren't important. For example he also tends to act rather arorgant and make poorly-received jokes, but neither of those needs to change in order for this market to resolve YES.
