Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
As of 15:39 UTC on 15 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 13 markets in “Will the AI bubble pop by X date?” on Manifold are “By 12-31-2028” at 50%, “By 9-30-2028” at 45% and “By 6-30-2028” at 39%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold, Kalshi and Predict.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date? For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days. More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10. A market will resolve to Yes if (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35 is satisfied by the stated date. If it is not satisfied by the stated date, it will resolve to No. Notes There are similar markets based on subjective resolution criteria (here and here) . Although there is not a single, perfect definition of an AI bubble popping, this is my attempt to introduce more objectivity into the market resolution criteria. The criteria above could be triggered by multiple events, such as a second so-called Liberation Day, and may not have a unique cause. Given the difficulty of establishing causation, I will not consider factors beyond the criteria above. Update 2025-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has updated the threshold from the originally proposed values to 35% reduction within 10 consecutive trading days. The market will resolve to Yes if the MAGS ETF closing price drops by 35% or more within any 10 consecutive trading day period by the stated date.
