When will Trump serve time?
As of 20:17 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, “Never” leads “When will Trump serve time?” on Manifold at 92%, followed by “2030s” at 4% and “2029” at 3%, out of 10 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Limitless, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
