How will Trump serve time?
As of 22:01 UTC on 15 Sep 2026, “Never” leads “How will Trump serve time?” on Manifold at 88%, followed by “House arrest” at 11% and “Other” at 1%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his sentence begins.
