Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?” at 52%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved. It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books. The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication. This question will be resolved if he dies or the book is published. I might extend the question closing date.
