Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Manifold·Culture

As of 08:16 UTC on 11 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?” at 85%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc. Does not count if partially completed and finished by another author Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Extended: The deadline for resolving the market has been extended by 12 months. (AI summary of creator comment)