Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will be true of WW3?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "What will be true of WW3?": AI will be at least one of the strategic advantages and important weapons 82%, It will start from a series of local conflicts 76%, After twenty years after its end, world GDP will be no less than when it started 67% (top 3 of 26 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on May 28, 2100.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/32m8CEr2T0sgQA5hQF3s. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will be true of WW3?

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