Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 10 years?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 10 years?": AI + Internet 95%, AI + Robotics 77%, AI + Biotech 69% (top 3 of 16 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2034.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/7qikISaQETQmzsFSVlx0. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 10 years?

similar markets