Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024. Resolution criteria: Significant Adoption: The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase. Operational Efficiency: The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions. Regulatory Approval: If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies. Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits. Independent Verification: The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources. If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value. Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - True Mind Uploading Definition: Requires a perfect copy of at least some regions of the brain. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Autonomous Flying Cars: Only air travel capability is required; ground capability is optional. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-18-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human mind uploading is the complete replication of a human mind's structure, function, and consciousness into a digital or artificial substrate. It requires a high-resolution scan of the brain's neural architecture and synaptic connections. The uploaded mind must exhibit continuity of identity, memory, and subjective experience. It must be indistinguishable from the original mind in terms of cognitive and emotional responses. The process must be verifiable through independent scientific validation. It should not rely on speculative or unproven assumptions about consciousness. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Economic Viability Clarification: Broader Market Requirement: A technology must demonstrate viability in a wider economic market, not just niche or research settings. Niche vs. For-Profit: Technologies used solely in government-funded or highly specialized projects (e.g., exclusive use in space missions) are less likely to meet the economic viability needed for significant adoption. Adoption Beyond Research: Evidence of economic viability should show that the technology is driving widespread use, creating new industries, or significantly improving existing ones, rather than merely transacting sales to research institutions. Overall Impact: The economic viability criterion is assessed in terms of its contribution to overall significant adoption by 2049. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) – Human Specificity: In this market, BCI is defined strictly in a human-specific context. Any breakthrough in BCI must be directly applicable to human cognitive enhancement or interaction to be considered for significant adoption. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Quantum Computing Applications Clarification: Evidence that quantum computers achieve quantum advantage by 2049, meaning they solve certain real-world problems significantly faster or more effectively than the best available classical systems. This quantum advantage must be demonstrated in commercially relevant applications consistently and reliably. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Synthetic Meat Criteria: Must be indistinguishable by taste from conventional meats (e.g., beef, chicken, pork) as determined by blind taste tests, making it very difficult for typical consumers to reliably differentiate. For novel meat types that do not replicate existing meats, resolution depends on whether culinary experts and consumers broadly recognize and accept it as a form of meat. Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commercial Viability: Seafloor mining operations must be commercially viable by demonstrating a significant and measurable contribution to the global supply of at least one critical mineral (e.g., cobalt, nickel, manganese). Seafloor Mining Robots: Defined as autonomous or highly automated underwater vehicles capable of navigation and performing core mining functions such as resource collection with minimal real-time human control (supervised autonomy is acceptable). Widespread Adoption: By the end of 2049, the use of seafloor mining robots should be established as an industry standard, ensuring the breakthrough is widely implemented. Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time travel breakthrough clarification: The technology must be distinctly time-machine-like, meaning it must produce a scenario where an object or individual experiences usefully less elapsed time inside the device as measured by a physical clock (not just a subjective sensation). Any approach that does not meet this standard, even if it involves relativistic effects or other mechanisms, does not satisfy the resolution criteria for a breakthrough in time travel within this market. This criterion must be met in addition to the existing general market requirements. Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Desalination Technology Criteria: Commercial Availability: The technology must be commercially available. Energy Efficiency: It must reduce energy consumption for seawater desalination (salinity ~35,000 ppm, recovery rate ≥50%) to below 1.5 kWh per cubic meter. Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Brain computer interfaces (BCI): Must interface with multiple specific neurons for complex interactions and be a widely adopted regulated medical device. Bioprinting: Must create complex, vascularized tissues (e.g., kidney organoids, heart valves) that can be successfully transplanted and function long-term. Gene editing therapies: Must be for several common conditions and have a cost low enough to be a practical option within major healthcare systems. Regenerative medicine: Must feature therapies that verifiably reverse damage from a major disease (e.g., regrowing heart muscle after a heart attack, restoring neurons after spinal injury). Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Autonomous Flying Cars answer: The vehicle's purpose must be human transportation. A human operator must be able to specify the travel destination. Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Time travel to the future answer, it must become a routine and practical method for achieving a real goal. This goal can be commercial or non-commercial (e.g., for research). Research into the phenomenon of time travel itself will not be considered a valid goal; the technology must be used to achieve a different objective. Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells clarification: A synthetic cell is defined as a cell that does not share a common origin with biological cells None of its ancestors were the result of mitosis of an organic cell The cell can contain structures identical to those of organic cells Other than DNA, none of the parts may be extracted from living cells Some structures may be engineered from proteins produced using organic cells, provided those structures are created outside of the organic cells This is a much stricter condition than merely enhancing cells Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic Scope for Adoption: Significant adoption is assessed in the developed world, not globally. Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer: The HPV vaccine does not qualify, as it targets a cause of cancer rather than cancer itself A qualifying vaccine must directly target cancer, not merely one of its causes The vaccine must target multiple types of cancer broadly (not a narrow scope) Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cancer vaccines are defined as treatments that specifically target and destroy cancer cells (i.e., therapeutic/treatment vaccines), not merely preventive vaccines that target a cause of cancer. Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles: the robot must be bipedal and walking (wheeled bases do not qualify).