Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?
As of 13:29 UTC on 5 May 2026, “No global catastrophe” leads “Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?” on Manifold at 60%, followed by “Climate” at 12% and “Artificial Intelligence” at 11%, out of 7 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe". See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts. If multiple global catastrophes occur, resolves based on the first. [link preview]See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-global-catastrophe-kill-at-l-d006e1e39ca8)