Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?
As of 05:03 UTC on 4 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?” at 23%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.
"We" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc. Control the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe. For example, a necessary, but not sufficient, condition would be that, if it rains on one day per week in Paris, then we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention. See also: @/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-f47455a10483 @/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat (This one) @/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd And for a market on a much stronger kind of control over the weather: @/Bayesian/will-we-have-total-control-over-the
