p|datav0.1news218
opentrade on Manifold ↗
marketsingle market

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology
23%
vol cum
M7.2k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Dec 31, 2030
YES 23¢
NO 77¢

Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.

timeline
opened · Mar 27, 2023opencloses · Dec 31, 2030
Will an AI winter happen by 2030? · prices over time
−24h
now
no price history yet
volume · 24h windows
no volume history

similar markets

suggested by pdata
Manifoldmanifold
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
yes27¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
yes18¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?
yes73¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
2030+ or never72¢· 0.0pp20298¢· 0.0pp20287¢· 0.0pp
+4 others
M0 24h · 7 markets
Manifoldmanifold
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
yes68¢
M0 24h · 1 market
Manifoldmanifold
Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?
yes10¢
M0 24h · 1 market