Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 22:08 UTC on 31 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will an AI winter happen by 2030?” at 23%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

23%

vol cum

M7.2k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2030

Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.