Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
As of 07:26 UTC on 4 Sep 2026, Manifold prices “Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?” at 27%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development. The resolution of this will necessarily be subjective, but significant actions with the intent of pausing AI development happening in conjunction of an apparent pause in increasing AI capabilities of at least 12 months will resolve this YES.