In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?
As of 02:39 UTC on 11 Sep 2026, “2030+ or never” leads “In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?” on Manifold at 72%, followed by “2029” at 8% and “2028” at 7%, out of 7 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This market will resolve when Zvi Mowshowitz declares that we've now entered an "AI Winter". The declaration has to be serious and not in jest - i.e. an April 1st joke on Twitter wouldn't count. The declaration can be made on Zvi's Twitter, Substack or any other social media platform reliably known to be controlled by Zvi. This market will resolve to N/A if Zvi stops being active on social media for a period of at least 6 months.
