Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?” at 15%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold.

15%

vol cum

M112.2k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 9999

Resolves YES if general consensus is that we are in another AI winter comparable to the AI winters of the 1970s and 1990s Resolves NO if general consensus is that we have realized AGI. Closing date will be moved forward perpetually untill either of the two resolution critera have been met.