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will 2030 be hotter than 2023?

Manifold·Climate and Weather

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “will 2030 be hotter than 2023?” at 77%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Kalshi, Opinion, Manifold and Polymarket.

77%

vol cum

M7.3k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Nov 5, 2030

YES 77¢

NO 23¢

Resolves yes if the year's average temperature across the world is higher in 2030 than it was in 2023

timeline

opened · Aug 28, 2023opencloses · Nov 5, 2030

will 2030 be hotter than 2023? · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · 24h windows

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