Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km) (if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage) Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so. Update 2026-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a flight plan includes a conditional or optional orbit attempt (such as one dependent on nominal conditions) and they decide not to proceed with the orbit, this will count as a failed attempt (resolving the market to No). Update 2026-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Starship establishes an orbit on a trajectory that would continue to make several orbits of Earth, but performs a de-orbit burn early before completing a full pass, this will resolve as YES. An elliptical orbit with a low point below 100 km from the surface does not count.
