marketsingle market
Will Starship make orbit on first attempt?
United States

91%
▲ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M23.9k
vol 24h
M1.6k
spread
n/a
ends
Oct 2, 2026
YES 91¢
NO 9¢
Whenever it launches, will the first flying stack of Starship on BFR put starship in orbit? (at least one pass around the Earth while above 100 km) (if the first flight is not planned to orbit, wait for the first flight that is planned to orbit, but sub-orbital tests are some lame Blue Origin garbage) Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for a pre-flight published plan that includes putting Starship in orbit before the market can resolve. The flight must have an official plan to reach orbit, not just the capability to do so.
space
timeline
opened · Jul 15, 2026opencloses · Oct 2, 2026