When will Starship complete an orbit?

·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2028

vol cum

M160k

vol 24h

M0

outcomes

40

ends

Jan 1, 2028

The market will resolve to YES as soon as SpaceX Starship rocket reaches spaces and completes at least one full orbit. The market will resolve positively even if there is some sort of mishap or loss of communication, as long as it completes the orbit mostly in one piece. Until this happens, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective period is over without a successful flight. Related questions: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-wit @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-attempt-pr @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-dock-to-a @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-superh @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-starsh I will not bet on this market. Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): To resolve YES, a full 360-degree orbit must be completed. As an example, a flight that launches to the East and lands back at the same launch site would not count as a full orbit, because the Earth rotates underneath the spacecraft. Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has corrected the previous guidance regarding flight direction and orbit completion: A flight that launches to the East and lands back at the same launch site will count as completing a full orbit, as it covers more than 360 degrees in inertial space due to Earth's rotation.