event8 outcomes

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 21:56 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “<5” leads “How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?” on Polymarket at 52% (+8pp in 24h), followed by “5-6” at 35% (+1pp in 24h) and “7-8” at 1%, out of 8 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world matches it to “How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space in 2026?” on Kalshi, an event with 10 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Limitless, Manifold and Polymarket.

vol cum

$525.4k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

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showing 5 of 8

SpaceXSpaceScienceElon MuskRecurringClimate & Science

marketselected outcome

rank #1

United States

52¢

▲ 7.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$104.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.31

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Dec 12, 2025opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

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