How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
As of 15:06 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 8 markets in “How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?” on Manifold are “3 or more” at 100%, “4 or more” at 93% (+1pp in 24h) and “5 or more” at 46% (+3pp in 24h). The event has M$4.2k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world matches it to “How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?” on Kalshi, an event with 10 outcomes. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold and Opinion.
Launch is defined as lifting off from the pad, even slightly, under the thrust of its own engines (the launch does not have to be successful) Must be a full stack launch, but any Starship variant counts Answers will resolve as they are fulfilled I may resolve answers NO early if I'm exceedingly certain they aren't attainable UTC is used for determining 2026 start/end
